Speaker: Holly Hu (IHS Markit)

 

Holly Hu has over 7 years working experience in solar industry, and has profound   knowledge across industry and policy analysis, global PV value chain, and   solar product pricing trend. Prior to joining IHS, Holly has worked in Trina   Solar as business development manager, responsible for providing PV market   intelligence and competitor’s analysis. Prior to Trina solar, she worked as an   equity analyst in Accenture, supported research in listed utility and   renewable companies.
  
Holly holds an MSc in International Banking and Finance from the University of Southampton, UK. 

 

Global Solar PV markets forecast and supply chain outlook

 

 

Despite the strong growth of solar installations in many emerging countries, solar demand is still depending of a handful of countries. The four largest PV markets will in 2017 represent nearly three quarters of global PV demand.

 

PV demand in 2017 will be shaped by the projected decline in the world’s three largest markets – China, United States and Japan.  IHS Markit forecast these markets to shrink by a combined 9 GW (16% year-on-year) in 2017. As a result, we do not expect global annual growth to go beyond 2% – in stark contrast to the 35% growth experienced in 2016. IHS Markit anticipates that, similar to previous years, final global demand numbers will be heavily influenced by policy evolution in China in the second half of the year.

 

How is the module manufacturing industry reacting to the low-demand market predicted in 2017? The first reaction has been a considerable reduction in the number of capacity expansions announced in the last few quarters. According to IHS Markit PV Integrated Market Tracker, C-Si module manufacturing capacity grew by 21% in 2015 and 17% in 2016, but it is forecast to grow by only 5% in 2017. Solar manufacturers across the value chain have become more cautious canceling or delaying new buildup of capacity.

 

P-type crystalline-silicon solar panels will continue dominating the market, with approximately 90% of total shipments in 2017. N-type product share is predicted to grow in 2017 but to remain below 10% of the total market.  Under a moderate demand growth scenario in 2017, most manufacturers are opting for being conservative in their new technology roadmap investments.

 

演讲嘉宾：胡丹 （IHS）

 

报告题目：

全球光伏市场预测和供应链展望

 

       胡丹负责研究和分析太阳能光伏政策、市场及下游项目以及上游厂商, 追踪和分析全球光伏价值链公司研究以及产业链价格趋势，同时参与撰写多份IHS的全球与区域产业链及下游需求市场报告。

 

       加入IHS之前，胡丹在常州天合光能有限公司担任事业发展部经理，负责提供光伏市场动态及行业竞争者分析。在此之前，胡丹在埃森哲咨询公司担任高级行业研究员，主要研究电力及新能源行业。她有7年的太阳能行业研究工作经验。胡丹在英国南安普敦大学获得国际银行与金融硕士学位。

 

       目前，全球光伏市场需求仍然由几大中心市场决定，虽然有些新兴市场增速较快，可是从总量来看，2017年的全球光伏市场需求前四大市场包括中国、美国、印度和日本，四大市场的总量和全球市场三个季度数量相当。2017年的光伏需求的主要变化来自于前三大市场，包括中国、美国和日本的需求下滑。IHS Markit预测这三大市场新增装机量比去年2016年降低了9GW, 同比下滑16%。因此我们认为2017年光伏市场需求只有约百分之二的年增长，与2016年的百分之三十五的年增长相比，增速大幅放缓。同时，对于季度的需求变化，我们认为由于中国市场的政策影响，下半年的市场需求仍然受比较大的影响。

 

       2017年在全球需求增速放缓的前提对于产业链来说也是不小的挑战。首先，近几个季度在电池组件端的扩产速度是放缓的。根据我们的PV integrated Market Tracker报告，晶硅组件在2015到2016年产能增幅分别达到了百分之二十一和百分之十七，可是在2017年只有约百分之五。P-型晶硅组件仍然占市场主导，约九成的2017年出货量仍是P型产品。 然而N型的产品市场份额有所提升但仍不到百分之十。在需求变化的情况下，厂商将对于新技术路线的选择及新产能的扩张更加谨慎。